12 min • 5 lectures
Traditional decision-making often suffers from "resulting," a cognitive bias where the quality of a choice is judged solely by its outcome. This course, based on Annie Duke’s research, examines how to distinguish between skill and luck in an uncertain world. Using insights from cognitive psychology and professional poker, the material explains why life more closely resembles a game of incomplete information than a game of complete information like chess. You will learn to treat beliefs and choices as bets, acknowledging the inherent uncertainty in every situation. This shift in perspective moves away from black-and-white thinking and toward a more accurate assessment of probability. By understanding that outcomes are not always within our control, you can focus on the process of making better choices rather than reacting to the whims of chance. The course provides structural tools to improve judgment and reduce common biases. We cover the mechanics of belief formation and why active skepticism is necessary for truth-seeking. You will learn how to leverage group accountability and diverse viewpoints to challenge individual blind spots and invite productive dissent. Practical strategies such as premortems, backcasting, and precommitment contracts are introduced to help manage future consequences before emotions interfere with logic. By practicing mental time travel and scenario planning, you can better prepare for a wide range of potential outcomes. These methods allow for more objective decision-making in both business and personal contexts, ensuring that feedback from past events is used effectively without being clouded by hindsight bias or overconfidence. This systematic approach helps create a more resilient strategy for navigating risk.
